Thursday, 28 June 2018

Is Wind Turbine, Tidal Lagoon and Solar PV/Concentrate Solar Lens technology mutually exclusive?What About, Hinkley, Heathrow and Swansea?

Heathrow Runway 3, Swansea Tidal Lagoon and Hinkley point all point to a complete failure of Policy Making informed by proper economic analysis. Given Energy Restraints as opposed to Financial outcomes for our decision-making criteria which of the three would be progressing indeed are any of the three Mutually Exclusive in resource terms?

Great Article, I particularly liked the explanation of ECOE
“Because the world economy is a closed system, ECoE is not directly analogous to ‘cost’ in the usual financial sense. Rather, it is an economic rent, limiting the choice we exercise over any given quantity of energy. If we have 100 units of energy, and the ECoE is 5%, we exercise choice (or ‘discretion’) over 95 units. If ECoE rises to 10%, we now have discretion over only 90 units, even though the gross amount remains 100.”
One great question ( Big, Inponerable) not I am asking a great question, Is, To what extent are different energy solutions Mutually exclusive? That is, If you choose one then, you can not have the other.
Alluding to the long discussion on the previous Article, for instance, Are Thorium Based MSR mutually exclusive to Coal Fired and Gas Fired Power Stations.

#129: WHY, WHAT, HOW?

Can large U.S. banks hand $170 billion to their shareholders in the next 12 months? Will a top European investment bank botch the first public stress test of its entire U.S. business?
The Federal Reserve will answer those questions and more when it posts results from the second and final stage of its 2018 stress test Thursday at 4:30 p.m. While investors got hints during the first stage last week, the central bank has repeatedly found ways to surprise in past reviews of banks’ risk management and proposed cash payouts. #ConquestofDough
Regular visitors will know that, since the recent completion of the development programme, SEEDS – the Surplus Energy Economics Data System – forms the basis of almost every subject that we discuss here. For anyone new to this site, though, what is SEEDS? What does it do, and how important might it be?
The aim in this longer-than-usual article is to explain SEEDS, starting with some of what it tells us before examining how it reaches these conclusions. The methodologies of the system are discussed here, with the exception of a small number of technical points of which detailed disclosure would be unwise.
Before we start, new visitors need to know that the divergence between SEEDS and “conventional” economics has now become so wide that it’s almost impossible to place equal faith in both. If SEEDS is right – and that’s for you…

Is Wind Turbine, Tidal Lagoon and Solar PV/Concentrate Solar Lens technology mutually exclusive?
As well as this idea of, are we resource restrained? as opposed to, are we Finance restrained? I am still slightly confused with Seeds and its approach to Debt, Money and the distinction between Productive Investment and Consumption Spending.
To get from GDP to prosperity, then, two stages are involved. The first is to arrive at a ‘clean’ GDP number by removing the distortions introduced by pouring cheap credit into consumption. The second is to deduct ECoE from this underlying number.
The results show a deterioration in prosperity across all major Western economies other than Germany. Typically, Western citizens are getting poorer at rates of between 0.5% and 1% annually.
Moreover, the share of debt – personal, business and government – that these citizens are required to support on the back of dwindling prosperity has grown markedly. Because servicing this debt at normal (above-inflation) interest rates has become impossible, we are locked into monetary policies which are themselves destructive.”
In the first part of the article, you refer to “The Seeds ECOE Algorithm” and maybe it is in that where my difficulties, following the reasoning lay?
Another unresolved question is How big is the Final Real Output Pie and which proportion is Hoarded as Financial Wealth by “The elite” “Oligarchs” “The Ruling Class” “The Winners”, call them what you will. Are the people at the top deluding themselves into thinking that they are better off now than in 2007/8, we all know at whose expense this has been if they are better off either In Real terms or Relative terms to the Losers, i.e, real falling wages and the distribution of Wealth ( Oxfam publish that every year). Income distribution and Wealth distribution and Who are net payers of Interest are all intrinsic allocators of the Pie whether it is getting smaller or whether it is getting bigger, With positive Interest rates, it is mathematically certain that all Wealth migrates to the Very top leaving debt distributed with the Losers.
As part of a SEEDS stocktaking of the Energy Wealth and Energy Potential of the Total Economy where there are resource restraints on providing an Optimal Energy Output ( This will be electro Magnetic in nature ) Electro Magnetism is present in all matter inert and organic and whilst we might run out of Crude oil and other natural stores of Hydro Carbons, we are only really in any trouble when we run out of electrons.
The idea of our discretionary energy spending comes through in the article and I wonder if this is where we can really nail where our Energy Investment Challenges have been Failed.
The Analysis in the article Gives us a Gross Energy and a Net Energy available for total use. I suspect that the Available energy will be dynamic and has always been so and perhaps always will be and therein lies the question.
“Within the dynamic range of Net available energy for Use we meet political economy”. Discuss?