Sunday, 15 October 2017

Seeds, GDP, Old Measures and New Paradigms. EROI ,

Hi Tim, The New Seeds Spreadsheets are great, lots to get our teeth into thanks.
Looking forward to the Russian Figures to wit this interesting article in Russia Observer is relevant to the wider Energy based economics analysis.endeavour.
“What of the future? Well, there’s a simple answer to that question – compare Russia in 2000 with Russia in 2017: all curves are up. Meanwhile, sanctions are driving the Russians to create new industries, oilfield services for one, or to boost others: agricultural products are now the second-largest export sector. Understandably, many Russians prefer the longtime gain to the immediate (and declining) pain and hope the sanctions continue. For what it’s worth, PwC predicts Russia will be first in Europe in 2050, but, even so, I think it misses the real point: Indonesia and Brazil ahead of Russia? No way: it’s not GDP/PPP that matters, let alone how many USDs your currency buys, it’s full service. (Anyway, by 2050 the renminbi or gold will likely be the measure and how will the USA itself look by that measurement?).”
“What’s the good of Mercator’s North Poles and Equators,
Tropics, Zones, and Meridian Lines?”
So the Bellman would cry: and the crew would reply
“They are merely conventional signs!
“We need new ways to talk about progress
and new ways to measure progress.
We need to change the paradigm
and the measures that are used at all
levels of society—from international
down to individual.”
Table 1: Values for GDP per capita (GDP) vs. household consumption expenditure per capita (HCE), welfare-related government expenditure per capita (HWGE), net household savings per capita (NHS) and personal disposable income per capita (PDI) in 2005 international dollars PPP. Values are for the year 2005.
See Table 1 for some 2005 comparisons of different measures of SocioEconomic Development.

This endeavour is far from easy as you well know Tim, I am trying to be enthusiastic and encouraging as your work is very inspiring and at the same time calling for some sort of Levilised Metric which points to the Paradigm changing analysis needed to move the general understanding of what Future potentials can look like.


rogerglewis 1:55 pm on October 15, 2017 Permalink | Reply | Edit | Follow 

#109: Still the Orient Express? 

Another Piece of the Jigsaw, SEEDS
The development of SEEDS – the Surplus Energy Economics Data System – enables us to put individual economies under the magifying glass, and this discussion responds to reader requests by looking at China.
Before we start, it’s necessary to remind ourselves that China remains a one-party state in which the authorities exercise considerable influence over the private sector. This matters, because the over-riding concern of the government is to avoid the unrest which would be likely to result from unemployment.
This objective can be a tough call. Despite family control policies sometimes criticized by outsiders, the population of China does continue to expand, and has increased by an estimated 68 million – more than the entire population of Britain – since 2006. Additionally, Chinese citizens continue to migrate from the countryside in search of better-paid work in the cities. Together, these trends make it
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rogerglewis 1:56 pm on October 15, 2017 Permalink | Reply | Edit | Follow 


Why Russia — a country with less money than Canada and fewer people than Nigeria — runs the world now” wondered the Canadian newspaper National Post in January. The piece doesn’t give useful answers: nuclear weapons, good diplomacy, yes, but also the usual claptrap about “ruthlessness” and “Abandon[ing] economic worries to double down on efforts to grab geopolitical status”; in short only a brute lashing out in delirium tremens. The editors should better have wondered whether the headline even made sense: the first point is wrong and the second irrelevant. But, like so much of what passes for analysis in the Western media, it’s written backwards: it’s decision-based evidence making.
Talking about the relative insignificance of Russia’s GDP is an old game: Wikipedia says Canada’s GDP is greater than Russia’s and Germany’s is about two and a half times greater. These comparisons all assume that the price…
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