Is UKIP Labour’s phantom menace?
Despite being talked about as a threat to Labour for many years by far and away the largest segment of UKIP support comes from former Conservative voters. While UKIP have started to increase their electoral appeal to Labour voters, they have done so from a very modest base. In spring 2014, YouGov showed that just 11 per cent of UKIP supporters voted for the Labour Party in the 2010 election. By the end of 2014 the same pollsters were talking of a larger proportion of former Labour voters with as many as 23 per cent of UKIP supporters having voted for the Labour Party in 2010. This was still dwarfed, however, by the 48 per cent of former-Tory-now-UKIP voters.
Take away so far In Nuneaton the split of UKIP vote was 50 50 to both Tories and Labour equally. In the Sunderland and Newcastle seats the split was more like Two-Thirds to Tories and one-third to labour.
As Labour have improved their vote hugely from the very large uptick in turnout it suggests that The BBC Exit Poll will if anything be pessimistic vis Labour. The Tories are in Trouble!