The Rovian Turn in Election punditry, Lies Damned Lies and Statistics. #Corbyn4PM
The scripted narrative will surely deliver a Tory landslide or will it? We will see tomorrow how strong the Establishment spin machine remains in France. There seems to be rather a lot of Rovian type telekinesis being practised by the Neo-Liberal apologists who invariably do not acknowledge their ideological master.
´´The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore." He continued "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors … and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community
Suskind, Ron (2004-10-17). Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush. The New York Times Magazine.
Chris Prosser might look at his 2016 paper http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415002152
And give a little more thought to which samples remain statistically relevant/Significant before adjusting his 2020 predictions?
did u smooth the results for 2016 results i.e 88 councils 2017 124 in 2016 turnout anomalies i.e low turnout? http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/what-do-the-2016-local-elections-tell-us-about-what-might-happen-in-2020/ … …
Quick #GE2017 forecast using #LE2017 BBC Projected National Shares (method here: https://t.co/g89Ozq7PK3):— Chris Prosser (@caprosser) May 5, 2017
Con 43%, Lab 27%, LD 15%, UKIP 6%
What do the 2016 local elections tell us about what might happen in 2020?
What more evidence do they need? What more proof do the Labour leadership and its supporters require? This was not an opinion poll.