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Don't Look Back, Pillars of Salt.


Some Old Blog Posts and Links.

http://www.lovemoney.com/qanda/question/48597/-would-any-fool-recommend-buying-a-property-with-friends-in-the-economic-turmoil
RogerGLewis posted
Why Not. I believe there are shared ownership agreements which can be provided by your solicitor setting out the terms of agreement with your joint investors. Any collective investment vehicle will involve accommodating your investment partners changing circumstances over time.
My own view is if you have the finance then with a long term view your running yield from the investment you make and overall returns including capital returns over even a 5 to 10 year period would be much better than most buy to let landlords have had for most of the 2000's.( the capital returns are unlikely to be better than those who sold up before mid 2007, your rental yield almost certainly will be though)
Obviously you should invest bearing in mind potential rental voids and make provision for those. If you approach it in a professional manner with strict investment criteria I think you and your friends could do very well.
Posted on 18 January 2009 |
http://www.lovemoney.com/news/property-and-mortgages/house-prices/2325/why-house-prices-will-fall-this-year#comments
Dear Mr D'Arcy,
I am interested that your analysis completely ignores any supply side to the equation.
It is true that there is less mortgage finance available than for some time and also that the Market has taken a substantial Hit, not all home owners are in trouble however and indeed many are very comfortable with the historically low interest rates. At prices below sellers expectations there will be less sellers which will balance the lower demand. Further lack of funding of new development will further restrict supply. Adam Smiths invisible Hand is at work here the supply curve will shift as indeed the demand curve has at a point prices will not fall further, when will that point be?
Personally I think your article calls it wrong.
Anyone thinking of Buying Buy now get a big deposit borrow it from your parents , Grand Parents aunts uncles older siblings get them to increase their mortgages to borrow against the substantial equity that a large number of we older fortunate people have and are still sitting on. Get in there now there wont be a better chance than this for another 25 years.
There are two sides to every equation at least and Mr D'arcy by neglecting the supply side of this one is doing you a disservice if he is discouraging you from doing what it takes to get yourself a bargain now. Make sure you can pay the mortgage you commit to when rates go back up to 5% in two years time or so.
Just My opinion but I am a Chartered surveyor and Property Developer that Retired from the London Docklands Market in 2003, having banked substantial profits made from 1989 thru to 2003, I know what I am talking about.But don't take my advice think it through and satisfy yourself of all the facts.
Reporton 15 January 2009  |  Love  0 love

Just re read this whole debate from January 2009 on House prices. It's strange even though I now believ the Banking System has to be reformed root and branch and the intervening 2 years or so has brought to light a hell of a lot of stuff about liquidity ratios at Banks going beserk I wonder How positions on this discussinon would now change.
My philosophical outlook has changed markedly and my world view is certainly one that yes as an earlier poster in this discussion pointed out perhaps my own timing and decisions were more due to luck than Judgement. I would have to agree with those sentiments absolutely , perhaps for different reasons than the comment might have been implying, but I see the observation as very wise non the less. It also reminds me of where I first came across the Elephant tale.

Just re visited this after a very long couple of years and placed this observation in a blog I am writing.
Heres my Full Comment I hope to re kindle the discussion for some further thoughts.

Just re read this whole debate from January 2009 on House prices. It's strange even though I now believe the Banking System has to be reformed root and branch and the intervening 2 years or so has brought to light a hell of a lot of stuff about liquidity ratios at Banks going berserk I wonder How positions on this discussion would now change?
My philosophical outlook has changed markedly and my world view is certainly one that, yes, as an earlier poster in this discussion pointed out , "perhaps my own timing and decisions were more due to luck than Judgement". I would have to agree with those sentiments absolutely , perhaps for different reasons than the comment might have been implying, but I see the observation as very wise non the less. It also reminds me of where I first came across the Elephant tale.
I would be interested to know if anyone did buy after reading this article and how it worked out. I currently writing an a pamphlet suggesting reform to the valuation of property by Mortgagees in possession to take account of Economic replacement costs
as I believe the potential for a devastating Crash is a very real and present danger
There is a very strong undercurrent in the geo political/economic out look that requires a paradigm shift in thought and deed.
Anyway hello to anyone who contributed to this discussion would be great to have a re unioun discussion so to speak and reflect on what we were thinking back then and what we think now , that would be a very useful thing I think.

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