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Word from out on the Ground. Will the weather, Digital Democracy and a motivated Political Movement beat the Press Barons and establishment BBC? Election 2017 #VoteLabour

When the Tories win big in England today, as they will, voting Labour in Wales is pointless. More Plaid MPs and an increased vote share sends a stronger signal of Welsh opposition to Tory rule than 26+ anti-Corbyn, spinless and invisible Labour MPs.
Pob lwc i bob ymgeisydd y Blaid heddiw. Diolch i chi i gyd.
Duncan Rees Agree! No green candidate here in Wrexham, so am voting Plaid!👍

27 mins
Ashley Drake Good man!

Reply21 mins
Roger Lewis
It's a matter of turnout. Not even Lord Ashcroft is predicting a Tory Landslide. The main objective of Crosby´s Media Surrogates is to get older Torys to vote after being appalled by the deme
ntia Tax proposals and the running down of the NHS. This will be very close if turnout is at 2015 levels A hung Parliament if turnout is at Brexit referendum or 1992 levels and a Labour Win if Turnout reaches 1997 levels of 77%.
The Survation Poll which got the 2015 vote right shows a narrow 4% Tory lead in their polling, within the margin of error. The adjustments for Voter refusal and assumptions regarding the previous voting records of those canvassed are very much a reflection of the biases of those sponsoring the main published polls. If Turn Out hits the High 70 percent or so Labour will likely win with a 20 plus seat majority. The Lower the turnout the more likely that the Establishments efforts to encourage voter apathy will bring them their wished for result of more Austerity and more syphoning of the wealth from the bottom and middle to the Corporate fat cats. Dems the Facts Folks.
As you know Ashley I am no fan of Welsh Labour and its decidedly Neo-Liberal Blairite habits, it makes all the sense in the world for Welsh Voters to show them the door and vote for welsh Interests. Corbyn will reform the Labour Party away from the Blairite Red Tories like Kinnock for instance who was bequeathed his safe seat by Daddy.

Reply20 mins
Ashley Drake I understand the logic, but :

1. Don't see turnout at 75%-80% today ... the weather is terrible with driving rain and heavy winds.

2. Assuming a 30-50 seat Tory majority, Corbyn will be ousted by the Blairites pretty sharply so won't be in a position to reform anything.

It's wishful thinking I'm afraid.

Reply14 minsEdited
Roger Lewis Ashley, I have no idea what the turnout will be. I do know that Momentum and the Labour Party have run one of the best online campaigns and have a massive number of volunteers getting out the vote. We will know tomorrow if all the efforts have succeeded. If you get a diet of news from the BBC ( I know you do not) the impression is of voter apathy and hostility to Corbyn. In an electorate of nearly 50 millions and with a population of 70 millions how far and how powerfully the message for political change has been heard is impossible to predict. With modern media, it is possible in an advanced country to reach more people more directly and personally than ever before. The Labour Campaign clearly understands this as did Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Hilary Clinton did not and neither it appears did the Tories, they have relied on their trusty old war horses of the Press Barons and the BBC.
My analysis based on Lod Ashton's figures is not wishful thinking If the turnouts are at those different levels you will find that the probability analysis will come up pretty close to the outcome. Lord Ashdown makes clear that his model is not predictive of outcomes but a model of probabilities. The rest my old friend is down to the weather as you say, and the Ground Game. I would not back against Momentum and the Corbynistas this is 21st-century direct digital democracy in action and it's beautiful!

ReplyJust now

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