Initial Analysis. Watch the UKIP seats in this List second and 3rd place UKIP Collapse Division of Spoils Key!
The TV analkysis is missing an already strong trend identified in a december article on Open democracy.
Is UKIP Labour’s phantom menace?
UKIP did do well in winning a number of second places. They came second in a total of 120 seats. But a significant number of these (75) were Tory and only 44 were Labour held. UKIP also tended to come a distant second. In the vast majority of cases they require a very significant swing to win seats. According to Steven Ayres the average majority of a winning candidate in the general election was 11,480. But, for UKIP, in more than 80 per cent of its second place seats (100 out of 120) the winning candidate far exceeded the national average to win by a landslide:
If we focus in on the seats where UKIP came second to Labour then we can see that there are only two, Hartlepool (3,024) and Dagenham and Rainham (4,980), where the majority is less than 5,000 and only nine are below the 10,000 mark. Labour’s majority over UKIP exceeds the national average in 27 of the 44 constituencies. Peter Hoskin at ConservativeHome has collated this general election data and added in the result from the 2015 Oldham West by-election. Here are his findings:
Despite being talked about as a threat to Labour for many years by far and away the largest segment of UKIP support comes from former Conservative voters. While UKIP have started to increase their electoral appeal to Labour voters, they have done so from a very modest base. In spring 2014, YouGov showed that just 11 per cent of UKIP supporters voted for the Labour Party in the 2010 election. By the end of 2014 the same pollsters were talking of a larger proportion of former Labour voters with as many as 23 per cent of UKIP supporters having voted for the Labour Party in 2010. This was still dwarfed, however, by the 48 per cent of former-Tory-now-UKIP voters.
Take away so far In Nuneaton the split of UKIP vote was 50 50 to both Tories and Labour equally. In the Sunderland and Newcastle seats the split was more like Two-Thirds to Tories and one-third to labour.
As Labour have improved their vote hugely from the very large uptick in turnout it suggests that The BBC Exit Poll will if anything be pessimistic vis Labour. The Tories are in Trouble!