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Calling the Odds Green Party Leadership

http://bright-green.org/2016/07/22/analysis-who-should-lead-the-green-party/


The word Team is absent the analysis in the article. The green way is very much one of a collegiate leadership, as Shahrar Ali memorably says ´we are all leaders´. This is not just a slogan, in a devolved democratic system where policy and action of an executive carry out the wishes of the polity and does not impose its will upon it we naturally play as a team. The vote should very much be thought of as picking a team and the best team with complimentary qualities in all positions. In any team continuity at the heart with proven effectiveness is a big plus so in the leadership question I place that to one side and look at Shahrar and Amelia. This team who have had an amazing 2 year term and I feel they deserve and have earned the chance to continue their great work for a further two years, this is no disrespect to Andrew Cooper  and the other excellent deputy leader candidates but with Natalie stepping down rejecting this continuity at deputy with a proven and remarkably effective team would be a remarkably wasteful decision in my opinion. this then leads to the question of Leadership.

If one is persuaded by the two deputies argument made above the constitution of the Green Party of England and Wales provides that there be only one Leader, in the case of co leaders then only one deputy is elected.

It is a shame Jonathan Bartley is not standing in his own right for leader, I believe it is foolhardy to have the sole Green MP at present in the UK parliament as either Joint or Sole leader, it is not as if within the House of commons the formal title is of any practical or formal use and the party should be supporting Caroline not  looking to her for leadership in her already key and central role to the parties proof of concept in action, as it were.

When one evens out the playing field and considers Jonathan Bartley in his own right out of the sheltered lea of Caroline the question would look more stark and this election ceases to look like the predicted coronation touted back in mid May when the coronation couple fired the starting shotgun. With the status quo in the deputy argument refreshed in our minds we need to look at the field afresh, I see a field with out a co leadership bid even for many who might have at first instictively have been Drawn by the Lucas gravitas, and shoe in assumption.

Here,  another point should enter our thinking. The Membership is 4 times the level that it was in 2012 when the Leadership was last contested that contest had a low turnout as well going back to 2008 the leadership has been secured on a low turnout and less than 3500 votes. how many of the 60,000 voting members will exercise their franchise this time, what drew the new membership to the Green Party? Natalie Bennet for sure but also Shahrar and Amelia all three through tireless work, but also the other candidates who stood in the record number of seats contested in the 2015 election, this is not a membership here at the feet of any one personality or executive position it is a diverse political party and a membership recently joined in the fray of active membership, a High turnout should I think be expected.

The system used for the election is also the Single transferable Alternate Vote with six candidates and one seat. second third fourth and possibly 5th preferences may well play a very large part in this leadership election, If as I suspect the membership will want to maintain some stability and continuity not to say loyalty and thanks to the proven deputy team of Amelia and Shahrar. A respectable but not overwhelming level of support is the measured expectation of the Coronation Couple, hope and expect to remain a republic my fellow Greens.

So then to the Candidates Clive , Simon Marty and the Davids, DaveM and DaveW. if as a member you want 1 leader and 2 deputies thats the choice if the co leader option is taken its just 1 deputy and as  I have already said I think thats a huge waste of real political capital and wilfull destrucion of a dynamic that works with a proven track record.

With enlarged Membership, an expectation of a high turnout and the strong base for Shahrar and Amelia, the Coronation ticket might not even be top at the first ballot, with preference choices coming in from eliminated candidates my bet is the co leadership bid will be eliminated in round 3 or 4 with the two davids in a close outcome that could go either way by round 5, bizarrely the second and third choices of those placing Lucas and Bartley first on their ballots may well prove the decisive block of votes. Will the royalists RON? should be the question on all of our lips?

thats my analysis and I would call the odds evens on the two Davids and 2-1 for Lucas Bartley, Clive lord & Martie Warin 10-1 and Simon Cross 7-2 on, on the deputy leadership Shahrar and Amelia 1-2 on joint favourites the others 6-1 bar non.

For me I would like to see my Friend David Malone Elected Leader , David W would be a good result for the party as well I think more importantly I think Shahrar and Amelia should be kept as the effective unit they are, bizarrely Clive Lord is not the only one who thinks Andrew Cooper is in the Wrong race I agree and if he were in the Leadership Race he would probably be odds on favourite. also remember that in 2 years there will be a general election and many more Greens could find themselves in Westminster then even under FPTP. 

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